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In his recent book "End Times," science writer Bryan Walsh discusses 13 theories as to why we've yet to make contact with aliens and why we might never do so.
Here's how each one addresses the Fermi Paradox. Queloz and his co-winner of the Nobel prize, Michel Mayor, detected the first ever exoplanet a planet outside our solar system in Named 51 Pegasi b, the Jupiter-like planet is located about 50 light-years away from Earth, in the Pegasus constellation.
In the decades since that discovery, technology that enables astronomers to detect Earth-like planets has improved significantly.
That's in part why Queloz is convinced that we will find proof of aliens in the next century, if not sooner.
He suggested that in just 20 years, we may have the equipment needed to detect extraterrestrial life.
More than 50 of the exoplanets Kepler found were deemed potentially habitable, meaning they fall within the "Goldilocks zone" of their respective star — where conditions might enable liquid water to pool on the surface.
Earth and Mars fall within our sun's "just right" zone. Last month, scientists announced they'd detected water vapor on an exoplanet that Kepler found for the first time.
The potentially habitable planet, named Kb, is a super-Earth that orbits a red dwarf star light-years away. The researchers analyze that information for unusual patterns that might indicate an intentional or accidental transmission from an intelligent civilization.
The problem is that we don't know the value of many of the Drake equation variables with any degree of certainty. Scientists have a good handle on the first three: the rate of star formation, the number of those stars with planets, and the number of those planets within the stars' Goldilocks zone.
But the rest are still a mystery. Astrophysicist Michael Hart explored this question formally in a paper ; he argued that there had been plenty of time for intelligent life to colonize the Milky Way in the Since nobody on Earth had heard anything, Hart concluded, there must be no other advanced civilizations in our galaxy.
More recently, a Oxford University study suggested that there's a roughly two-in-five chance that we're alone in our galaxy and a one-in-three chance that we're alone in the entire cosmos.
But the more astronomers learn about conditions that make a planet suitable for life, the more it seems our galaxy could be more hospitable to life than previously thought.
SETI assumes that any extraterrestrials we might come into contact with would be more technologically advanced than we are, given the relatively short time humans have existed.
So it's possible that aliens don't use radio waves as a means to communicate. They could be reaching out using a technology that we don't know about yet.
Walsh compared the situation to one in which modern-humans would try to chat with a caveman on a cell phone we're the cavemen in this analogy.
One answer to the Fermi Paradox, he says, could be called "The Great Indifference" — perhaps aliens just don't care what a sub-intelligent race has to say.
Frank Drake sent out the first deliberate interstellar radio message on November 16, — seconds of a two-tone sound were beamed toward the star system Messier 13 or M13 in the Hercules constellation.
Encoded in the message were the atomic numbers of basic Earth elements, the numbers 1 to 10, and a graphic of our solar system to indicate where the message originated from.
But M13 is roughly 21, light-years away, according to SETI , so Drake's message will take about the same number of years to get there.
Then it would take any similar return signal the same amount of time to get back to us. Hawking told the Times of London: "I imagine they might exist in massive ships, having used up all the resources from their home planet.
Such advanced aliens would perhaps become nomads, looking to conquer and colonize whatever planets they can reach.
Some researchers have suggested that intelligent life in the galaxy may have the same concerns that Hawking did about making contact, so therefore elect to remain silent.
In "End Times," Walsh puts forward a hypothesis in this vein: Perhaps Earth is being treated like a zoo and humans are a remote group of indigenous galactic dwellers that are being intentionally left undisturbed.
In the film, an alien spaceship lands in Washington, DC to deliver a message: live peacefully or be destroyed as a danger to other planets.
The intelligent civilizations we're trying to contact could be in a state of dormancy that may last for billions of years, he says.
Walsh explores the idea that it may just be hard to reach us way out here, especially if other intelligent civilizations have, like us, not yet figured out an efficient way to travel between star systems.
If aliens were traveling at one-tenth the speed of light, it would take them 10 million years to cross the entire Milky Way. That's less than 0.
According to this potential answer to the Fermi Paradox, intelligent civilizations could exist in other parts of the Milky Way, but they die out or destroy themselves before they're able to find us or we're able to contact them.
As philosopher Nick Bostrom has explained, this concept suggests that life on an Earth-like planet has to achieve several "evolutionary transitions or steps" before it can communicate with civilizations in other star systems.
But an obstacle or barrier — a " Great Filter ," as it's called in this line of thinking — makes it impossible for an intelligent species to progress through all of those steps before collapsing.
The study put forth four scenarios that a civilization could follow as it develops. One of those pathways leads to sustainable existence.
But in the other three, civilizations overuse resources and collapse or die off as a result. So a possible answer to the Fermi Paradox , the study authors posited, is that environmental transformation whether that involves using up necessary resources or irreversibly changing a climate inevitably prevents civilizations from surviving long enough to travel to distant stars.
Walsh calls these clues "necrosignatures. Stern posited that some habitable worlds' liquid water is located under the surface, in the planets' interior.
That appears to be the case for Saturn's moon Enceladus. We wouldn't be able to hear their communication. They wouldn't maybe even know that there was a universe out there to communicate with.
The study, published in The Astronomical Journal in August, posits that intelligent aliens could be taking their time to explore the galaxy, harnessing star systems' movements and orbital shifts to make star-hopping easier.
The study authors suggested that aliens might wait for stars to move closer to one another before spreading across the galaxy , and that other civilizations could have already been here and left no evidence of their visit.
Seager speaks in brisk, uninflected phrases, and she has penetrating hazel eyes that hold on to whomever she is talking to. She explains that there are planets known as hot super-Earths whizzing about so close to their stars that a year lasts less than a day.
Hence, the melted rock. The very first exoplanet found—51 Pegasi b, discovered in —was itself a surprise: A giant planet crammed up against its star, winging around it in just four days.
Today we have confirmed about 4, exoplanets. The majority were discovered by the Kepler space telescope , launched in But its ultimate purpose was to resolve a much more freighted question: Are places where life might evolve common in the universe or vanishingly rare, leaving us effectively without hope of ever knowing whether another living world exists?
With a minimum of billion stars in the Milky Way , that means there are at least 25 billion places where life could conceivably take hold in our galaxy alone—and our galaxy is one among trillions.
The question is no longer, is there life beyond Earth? The question now is, how do we find it?
The revelation that the galaxy is teeming with planets has reenergized the search for life. A surge in private funding has created a much more nimble, risk-friendly research agenda.
NASA too is intensifying its efforts in astrobiology. Most of the research is focused on finding signs of any sort of life on other worlds.
But the prospect of new targets, new money, and ever increasing computational power has also galvanized the decades-long search for intelligent aliens.
Like Kepler, TESS looks for a slight dimming in the luminosity of a star when a planet passes—transits—in front of it. Every chemical compound absorbs a unique set of wavelengths of light.
We see leaves as green, for instance, because chlorophyll is a light-hungry molecule that absorbs red and blue, so the only light reflected is green.
Covering most of the wall over her vision table is a panel of micro-thin black plastic shaped like the petal of a giant flower.
The Kepler telescope, which detected thousands of exoplanets, was retired last year when it ran out of fuel, but new telescopes promise dramatic improvements in the hunt.
The telescopes shown here are expected to significantly advance our ability to detect signs of habitability thousands of light-years away.
Detects small planets orbiting bright stars, which could be good candidates for more in-depth habitability studies. This mission is still in development.
Guyon grew up in France, in the countryside of Champagne. When he was 11, his parents bought him a small telescope, which he says they later regretted.
He spent many nights peering into it, only to fall asleep the next day in class. When he outgrew that telescope, he built a bigger one.
But while he could magnify his view of heavenly objects, Guyon could do nothing to enlarge the number of hours in the night.
Something had to give, so one day when he was a teenager, he decided to do away with sleep almost entirely. At first he felt great, but after a week or so, he became seriously ill.
Recalling it now, he still shudders. At 43 years old, Guyon today has a very big telescope to work with. Operated by the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, the telescope has no affiliation with the car company—Subaru is the Japanese name for the Pleiades star cluster.
The proximity allows him to make frequent trips to test and improve the instrument he built and attached to the telescope, often working through the night.
He carries around a thermos of espresso, and for a while he took to spiking it with shots of liquid caffeine, until a friend pointed out that his daily intake was more than half the lethal dose.
Then you start forgetting to call your family. In this illustration, an exoplanet orbits in front of a star much like the sun. One way to find out if a planet might contain life is to look for telltale signs called biosignatures.
As starlight reflects off a planet or passes through its atmosphere, shown here in blue, gases absorb specific wavelengths.
The spectrum observed through a telescope could show whether gases associated with life, such as oxygen, carbon dioxide, or methane, are present.
Electromagnetic energy light passing through the atmosphere would create a spectrum like this one, which shows the presence of compounds linked to life.
On Earth, chlorophyll in photosynthesizing plants absorbs red and blue light, so vegetation appears green.
On other living worlds, though, photosynthesis might use a different pigment. A sharp contrast in a spectrum between the absorption of red light and reflection of near-infrared light, known as the vegetation red edge, indicates the presence of plants.
Until now, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence has focused on detecting an incoming radio signal. These could include laser pulses, polluting gases, or megastructures built around a nearby star to harness its energy.
This power spectrum from a survey of 14 planetary systems included a signal that looked promising, but no evidence was found that it was created by intelligent life.
Like Seager, Guyon is a MacArthur winner. Are there continents? Oceans and clouds? All these questions can be answered, if you can extract the light of a planet from the light of its star.
In other words, if you can see the planet. Trying to separate the light of a rocky, Earth-size planet from that of its star is like squinting hard enough to make out a fruit fly hovering inches in front of a floodlight.
But Guyon has his sights set on what the next generation of ground-based telescopes might be able to do, if they can be fashioned to squint very, very hard.
That is precisely what his instrument is designed to do. Guyon wanted me to see it in action, but a power outage had shut down the Subaru.
Instead he offers to give me a tour of the foot dome enclosing the telescope. There is 40 percent less oxygen here than at sea level.
She had gotten very quiet. So far, 47 exoplanets have been found that fit this profile. But that number will grow as.
Ground telescopes like the Subaru are much more powerful light-gatherers than space telescopes like the Hubble , chiefly because nobody has yet figured out how to squeeze a foot mirror into a rocket and blast it into space.
But ground telescopes have a serious drawback: They sit under miles of our atmosphere. This is accomplished by directing the light from a star onto a shape-shifting mirror, smaller than a quarter, activated by 2, tiny motors.
Next comes the squinting part. But the eventual result, once the next-gen telescopes are built, will be a visible dot of light that is actually a rocky planet.
Shunt this image to a spectrometer, a device that can parse light into its wavelengths, and you can start dusting it for those fingerprints of life, called biosignatures.
We already have a planet to prove it. On Earth, plants and certain bacteria produce oxygen as a by-product of photosynthesis. So if we can find evidence of it accumulating in an atmosphere, it will raise some eyebrows.
Even more telling would be a biosignature composed of oxygen and other compounds related to life on Earth.
Most convincing of all would be to find oxygen along with methane, because those two gases from living organisms destroy each other.
Finding them both would mean there must be constant replenishment. It would be grossly geocentric, however, to limit the search for extraterrestrial life to oxygen and methane.
Life could take forms other than photosynthesizing plants, and indeed even here on Earth, anaerobic life existed for billions of years before oxygen began to accumulate in the atmosphere.
As long as some basic requirements are met—energy, nutrients, and a liquid medium—life could evolve in ways that would produce any number of different gases.
The key is finding gases in excess of what should be there. There are other sorts of biosignatures we can look for too.
The chlorophyll in vegetation reflects near-infrared light—the so-called red edge, invisible to human eyes but easily observable with infrared telescopes.
But the vegetation on other planets might absorb different wavelengths of light—there could be planets with Black Forests that are truly black, or planets where roses are red, and so is everything else.
And why stick to plants? Lisa Kaltenegger, who directs the Carl Sagan Institute at Cornell University , and her colleagues have published the spectral characteristics of microorganisms, including ones in extreme Earth environments that, on another planet, might be the norm.
The light-gathering capacity of its meter feet mirror will exceed all existing Subaru-size telescopes combined. They are smaller and dimmer than our sun, a yellow dwarf, so their habitable zones are closer to the star.
The nearer a planet is to its star, the more light it reflects. Alas, the habitable zone of a red dwarf star is not the coziest place in the galaxy.
This would render half the planet too hot for life, the other half too cold. The midline, though, might be temperate enough for life.
But he agrees with Seager that the best chance of finding life will be on an Earth-like planet orbiting a sunlike star.
Breakthrough Starshot is an ambitious plan in development to send tiny probes on a year journey to the exoplanet Proxima Centauri b.
But even a featherweight spacecraft needs fuel. The farther it goes, the more it needs. The proposed solution?
Forget fuel: Launch it from an orbiting satellite and propel it with Earth-based lasers. Each probe has a quarter-inch chip weighing five grams or less that performs the roles of a camera, computers, and.
Breakthrough Starshot is an ambitious plan in development to send tiny probes on a year. Forget fuel: Launch it from an. Situated in low Earth orbit, a satellite houses thousands of probes.
When the individual probes are released, their sails automatically unfurl. On Earth, nearly a billion laser beams are directed at a probe to create a pulse with the power of gigawatts, lasting several minutes.
Proxima b after a voyage of more than 20 years. During its high-speed flyby, it takes images and records a range of data. The probe beams the information back using a laser embedded in its chip.
Each transmission takes about four years to reach the Earth. Its design consists of 28 panels arranged around a center hub like a giant sunflower, more than feet across.
The petals are precisely shaped and rippled to deflect the light from a star, leaving a super-dark shadow trailing behind.
The two spacecraft will work together in a sort of celestial pas de deux: Starshade will amble into position to block the light from a star so WFIRST can detect any planets around it and potentially sample their spectra for signs of life.
Then, while WFIRST busies itself with other tasks, Starshade will fly off into position to block the light of the next star on its list of targets.
Though the dancers will be tens of thousands of miles apart, they must be aligned to within a single meter for the choreography to work.
Seager, who hopes to lead the project, is confident. One can only hope.
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